UPAYA PENINGKATAN PERMINTAAN DAN PENAWARAN VOLUME EKSPOR LOBSTER MELALUI SIMULTANEOUS APPROACH DI PROVINSI SUMATERA BARAT

Siti Aisyah, Mirza A Malik, Ira Desmiati, Dicky Rustam, Abdullah Munzir

Abstract


Abstract: Lobster is a high-value commodity in West Sumatra Province with great potential for export. However, fluctuations in lobster prices, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, and exchange rates affect export demand and supply. This study aims to analyze the effect of prices, GDP, and exchange rates on lobster export volume using a simultaneous approach. This study uses a quantitative descriptive method with a simultaneous equation model involving two equations, namely lobster export demand and supply. Data were obtained from the Central Statistics Agency, the Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries, and other official sources for the period 2017-2023. The results of the study indicate that lobster prices have a negative effect on export demand, while GDP and exchange rates have a positive effect. Increasing prices encourage lobster supply, but increasing prices of substitute goods have a negative effect on supply. The conclusion of this study emphasizes the importance of price policies, economic stability, and exchange rates in determining the success of lobster exports from West Sumatra Province.

 

Keywords: Simultaneous Approach; Export; Lobster; Price; GDP

 

Abstrak: Lobster adalah komoditas bernilai tinggi di Provinsi Sumatera Barat dengan potensi besar untuk ekspor. Namun, fluktuasi harga lobster, pertumbuhan Produk Domestik Bruto (GDP), dan nilai tukar (kurs) mempengaruhi permintaan dan penawaran ekspor. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh harga, GDP, dan kurs terhadap volume ekspor lobster menggunakan pendekatan simultan. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode deskriptif kuantitatif dengan model persamaan simultan yang melibatkan dua persamaan, yaitu permintaan dan penawaran ekspor lobster. Data diperoleh dari Badan Pusat Statistik, Kementerian Kelautan dan Perikanan, serta sumber resmi lainnya untuk periode 2017-2023. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa harga lobster berpengaruh negatif terhadap permintaan ekspor, sementara GDP dan kurs berpengaruh positif. Peningkatan harga mendorong penawaran lobster, namun kenaikan harga barang substitusi berpengaruh negatif terhadap penawaran. Kesimpulan penelitian ini menekankan pentingnya kebijakan harga, stabilitas ekonomi, dan nilai tukar dalam menentukan keberhasilan ekspor lobster dari Provinsi Sumatera Barat.

 

Kata kunci:  Simultaneous Approach; Ekspor; Lobster; Harga; GDP


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DOI: https://doi.org/10.54314/jssr.v8i1.2756

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