ANALISIS KEPUTUSAN INVESTASI SAHAM BERDASARKAN PENILAIAN HARGA SAHAM PADA PERUSAHAAN PERBANKAN PADA PERIODE 2020-2025

Abstract

Abstract: This study aims to analyze stock price developments, fundamental performance, and stock valuation as a basis for determining investment decisions in banking companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during the 2020–2025 period. The research objects consist of PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA), PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (BBRI), PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk (BMRI), and PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (BBNI). This study employs a quantitative approach using secondary data obtained from financial statements, annual reports, and historical stock price data. The analysis was conducted using panel data regression, with Earnings Per Share (EPS), Return on Assets (ROA), and Return on Equity (ROE) as independent variables and stock price as the dependent variable. In addition, stock valuation was conducted using the Price Earnings Ratio (PER) and Price to Book Value (PBV) to determine investment decision alternatives. The results show that EPS, ROA, and ROE do not have a significant partial effect on stock prices. However, simultaneously, the three variables have a significant effect on stock prices. The Fixed Effect Model produces a coefficient of determination of 91.63%, indicating that stock price variation can largely be explained by the model and the individual characteristics of each company. The valuation results show that in 2025, the four stocks were relatively undervalued compared to their respective historical averages. Based on the combination of valuation results and fundamental conditions, BMRI and BBRI are categorized as buy, BBCA as buy/hold, while BBNI is categorized as buy speculative/hold.

Keywords: Stock Price, EPS, ROA, ROE, PER, PBV, Investment Decision.

Abstrak: Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis perkembangan harga saham, kinerja fundamental, dan penilaian harga saham sebagai dasar dalam menentukan keputusan investasi pada perusahaan perbankan selama periode 2020–2025. Objek penelitian terdiri dari PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA), PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (BBRI), PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk (BMRI), dan PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (BBNI). Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan data sekunder yang bersumber dari laporan keuangan, laporan tahunan, dan data historis harga saham. Analisis dilakukan menggunakan regresi data panel dengan Earnings Per Share (EPS), Return on Assets (ROA), dan Return on Equity (ROE) sebagai variabel independen serta harga saham sebagai variabel dependen. Selain itu, penilaian saham dilakukan dengan menggunakan Price Earnings Ratio (PER) dan Price to Book Value (PBV) untuk menentukan alternatif keputusan investasi. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa EPS, ROA, dan ROE secara parsial tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap harga saham. Namun, secara simultan ketiga variabel tersebut berpengaruh signifikan terhadap harga saham. Model Fixed Effect menghasilkan nilai koefisien determinasi sebesar 91,63%, yang menunjukkan bahwa variasi harga saham sebagian besar dapat dijelaskan oleh model dan karakteristik individual masing-masing perusahaan. Hasil valuasi menunjukkan bahwa pada tahun 2025 keempat saham berada dalam kondisi relatif undervalued dibandingkan rata-rata historisnya. Berdasarkan kombinasi hasil valuasi dan kondisi fundamental, BMRI dan BBRI dikategorikan buy, BBCA dikategorikan buy/hold, sedangkan BBNI dikategorikan buy speculative/hold.

Kata kunci: Harga Saham, EPS, ROA, ROE, PER, PBV, Keputusan Investasi.