PERFUME SALES FORECAST USING THE METHOD WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE AND SINGLE MOVING AVERAGE
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54314/pwvv9x30Keywords:
forecasting, perfume sales, SMA, WMAAbstract
Abstract: Sales forecasting is an important activity in business management because it helps companies estimate future sales conditions. This study aims to analyze perfume sales forecasting using the Weighted Moving Average (WMA) and Single Moving Average (SMA) methods based on monthly sales data from June 2025 to May 2026. The forecasting process was carried out using Microsoft Excel. The results showed that the Weighted Moving Average method produced better forecasting accuracy because it prioritizes the latest data through weighting calculations. Forecasting accuracy was measured using MAD, MSE, and MAPE. Based on the calculation results, the WMA method produced smaller error values than SMA, making it more suitable for perfume sales forecasting.
Keywords: forecasting; perfume sales; SMA; WMA
Abstrak: Peramalan penjualan merupakan kegiatan penting dalam manajemen bisnis karena membantu perusahaan memperkirakan kondisi penjualan di masa mendatang. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis peramalam penjualan parfum menggunakan metode Weighted Moving Average (WMA) dan Single Moving Average (SMA) berdasarkan data penjualan bulanan periode Juni 2025 sampai Mei 2026. Proses perhitungan peramalan dilakukan menggunakan Microsoft Excel. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa metode Weighted Moving Average menghasilkan tingkat akurasi yang lebih baik karena lebih memprioritaskan data terbaru melalui pembobotan perhitungan. Tingkat akurasi peramalan diukur menggunakan MAD, MSE, dan MAPE. Berdasarkan hasil perhitungan, metode WMA menghasilkan nilai error yang lebih kecil dibandingkan metode SMA sehingga lebih sesuai digunakan dalam peramalan penjualan parfum.
Kata kunci: peramalan; penjualan parfum; SMA; WMA
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